Shell plc publishes fourth quarter 2023 press release

AGÊNCIA DE COMUNICAÇÃO Conteúdo de responsabilidade da empresa 1 de fevereiro de 2024

Shell plc

London, February 1, 2024                                                                                                                   

“Shell delivered another quarter of strong performance, concluding a year in which we made good progress across the targets outlined at our Capital Markets Day¹. As we enter 2024 we are continuing to simplify our organisation with a focus on delivering more value with less emissions.
In 2023, Shell returned $23 billion to shareholders. In line with our progressive dividend policy, Shell is now increasing its dividend by 4%. We are also commencing a $3.5 billion buyback programme for the next three months.”  

Shell plc Chief Executive Officer, Wael Sawan

 DELIVERING STRONG RESULTS AND SHAREHOLDER DISTRIBUTIONS 

• Q4 2023 Adjusted Earnings² of $7.3 billion, reflecting robust operational performance and strong LNG trading and optimisation results. CFFO of $12.6 billion for the quarter; total CFFO amounted to $54.2 billion in 2023.
• 2023 full year shareholder distributions of $23 billion, in excess of 40% of CFFO for 2023.
• 4% increase in dividend per share for the fourth quarter and a $3.5 billion share buyback programme, expected to be completed by Q1 2024 results announcement.
• Enhanced the advantaged upstream portfolio with the start-up of Mero-2 in Brazil and the final investment decision on Sparta in the US Gulf of Mexico. By focusing the portfolio and simplifying the organisation, $1 billion of structural cost reductions delivered in 2023.
• Focus on disciplined spending saw 2023 cash capex of $24.4 billion; 2024 cash capex outlook: $22 – 25 billion.

$ million2		Adj. Earnings	Adj. EBITDA	CFFO	Cash capex
Integrated Gas		3,963	6,578	3,597	1,196
Upstream		3,088	7,910	5,787	2,436
Marketing		692	1,337	2,709	1,339
Chemicals & Products3		83	770	207	1,031
Renewables & Energy Solutions		155	228	(1,265)	1,026
Corporate		(567)	(488)	1,540	85
Less: Non-controlling interest (NCI)		108
Shell	Q4 2023	7,306	16,335	12,575	7,113
	Q3 2023	6,224	16,336	12,332	5,649
	FY 2023	28,250	68,538	54,196	24,393
	FY 2022	39,870	84,289	68,414	24,833

¹Progress to date on the financial targets that were announced during Capital Markets Day in June 2023 is available at https://www.shell.com/investors/results-and-reporting/progress-on-cmd23.html
²Income/(loss) attributable to shareholders for Q4 2023 is $0.5 billion (includes post-tax net impairment charges and reversals of $3.9 billion). Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the unaudited results, available at https://www.shell.com/investors.
³Chemicals & Products adjusted earnings at a subsegment level are as follows – Chemicals $(0.5) billion and Products $0.6 billion.

• CFFO of $12.6 billion for Q4 2023 includes a working capital inflow of $3.3 billion due to lower prices. CFFO reflects tax payments of $3.6 billion and the timing impact of payments for emissions certificate and biofuel programmes mainly in Germany¹. Net debt of $43.5 billion at the end of 2023 is $1.3 billion below 2022.

$ billion2	Q4 2022	Q1 2023	Q2 2023	Q3 2023	Q4 2023
Divestment proceeds	0.2	1.7	0.5	0.3	0.6
Free cash flow	15.5	9.9	12.1	7.5	6.9
Net debt	44.8	44.2	40.3	40.5	43.5

¹ Includes payments for the Brennstoffemissionshandelsgesetz (Fuel Emissions Trading Act).
² Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the unaudited results, available at www.shell.com/investors.

                  Q4 2023 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE DRIVERS

INTEGRATED GAS

Key data	Q3 2023	Q4 2023	Q1 2024 outlook
Realised liquids price ($/bbl)	63	65
Realised gas price ($/mscf)	8	8
Production (kboe/d)	900	901	930 – 990
LNG liquefaction volumes (MT)	6.9	7.1	7.0 – 7.6
LNG sales volumes (MT)	16.0	18.1

• Adjusted Earnings higher than Q3 2023 reflecting exceptional trading and optimisation results combined with higher volumes. Trading and optimisation results were significantly higher compared with Q3 2023 due to seasonality and a high number of optimisation opportunities.
• Q1 2024 outlook reflects Prelude FLNG in Australia back in operation after a major turnaround.

UPSTREAM

Key data	Q3 2023	Q4 2023	Q1 2024 outlook
Realised liquids price ($/bbl)	79	80
Realised gas price ($/mscf)	7	8
Liquids production (kboe/d)	1,311	1,361
Gas production (mscf/d)	2,564	2,952
Total production (kboe/d)	1,753	1,870	1,730 – 1,930

      

• Adjusted Earnings higher in Q4 2023 due to higher production volumes and favourable movements in non-cash deferred tax positions.
• Q1 2024 production outlook reflects planned maintenance in Deepwater assets.

MARKETING

Key data	Q3 2023	Q4 2023	Q1 2024 outlook
Marketing sales volumes (kb/d)	2,654	2,508	2,150 – 2,650
Mobility (kb/d)	1,782	1,690
Lubricants (kb/d)	82	78
Sectors & Decarbonisation (kb/d)	790	740

• Marketing earnings impacted by lower volumes due to seasonality. Adjusted Earnings also reflect one-off tax help.

CHEMICALS & PRODUCTS

Key data	Q3 2023	Q4 2023	Q1 2024 outlook
Refining & Trading sales volumes (kb/d)	1,548	1,560
Chemicals sales volumes (kT)	2,998	2,588
Refinery utilisation (%)	84	81	83 – 91
Chemicals manufacturing plant utilisation (%)	70	62	68 – 76
Global indicative refining margin ($/bbl)	16	10
Global indicative chemical margin ($/t)	115	125

• Lower refining margins in Q4 2023 driven by lower global product demand and utilisation due to planned maintenance activities. Chemicals margins continue to be impacted by global oversupply as well as weak demand. Trading and optimisation significantly lower than Q3 2023.
• Q1 2024 Refinery utilisation outlook reflects completion of planned maintenance activities in North America.

RENEWABLES & ENERGY SOLUTIONS

Key data	Q3 2023	Q4 2023
External power sales (TWh)	76	68
Sales of natural gas to end-use customers (TWh)	170	175
Renewables power generation capacity*	7.4	6.6
in operation (GW)	2.5	2.5
under construction and/or committed for sale (GW)	4.9	4.1

  *Excluding Shell’s equity share of associates where information cannot be obtained

• Adjusted Earnings are higher than in Q3 2023 mainly driven by higher trading & optimisation results in Europe and the Americas due to volatility and seasonal effects.

Renewables and Energy Solutions includes renewable power generation, the marketing and trading and optimisation of power and pipeline gas, as well as carbon credits, and digitally enabled customer solutions. It also includes the production and marketing of hydrogen, development of commercial carbon capture and storage hubs, investment in nature-based projects that avoid or reduce carbon emissions, and Shell Ventures, which invests in companies that work to accelerate the energy and mobility transformation.

CORPORATE

Key data	Q3 2023	Q4 2023	Q1 2024 outlook
Adjusted Earnings ($ billion)	(0.5)	(0.6)	(0.6) – (0.4)

• The Adjusted Earnings outlook is a net expense of $1.5 – 2.1 billion for the full year 2024. This excludes the impact of currency exchange rate and fair value accounting effects.

UPCOMING INVESTOR EVENTS

14 February 2024	Shell LNG Outlook 2024
14 March 2024	Publication of Energy Transition Strategy 2024
27 March 2024	Annual ESG Update
2 May 2024	First quarter 2024 results and dividends
21 May 2024	Annual General Meeting
1 August 2024	Second quarter 2024 results and dividends
31 October 2024	Third quarter 2024 results and dividends

USEFUL LINKS

Results materials Q4 2023

Quarterly Databook Q4 2023

Dividend announcement Q4 2023

Webcast registration Q4 2023

ALTERNATIVE PERFORMANCE (NON-GAAP) MEASURES

This announcement includes certain measures that are calculated and presented on the basis of methodologies other than in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) such as IFRS, including Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA, CFFO excluding working capital movements, Cash capital expenditure, free cash flow, Divestment proceeds and Net debt. This information, along with comparable GAAP measures, is useful to investors because it provides a basis for measuring Shell plcs operating performance and ability to retire debt and invest in new business opportunities. Shell plcs management uses these financial measures, along with the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, in evaluating the business performance.

This announcement contains a forward-looking non-GAAP measure for cash capital expenditure and divestments. We are unable to provide a reconciliation of this forward-looking non-GAAP measure to the most comparable GAAP financial measure because certain information needed to reconcile the non-GAAP measure to the most comparable GAAP financial measure is dependent on future events some of which are outside the control of the company, such as oil and gas prices, interest rates and exchange rates. Moreover, estimating such GAAP measure with the required precision necessary to provide a meaningful reconciliation is extremely difficult and could not be accomplished without unreasonable effort. Non-GAAP measures in respect of future periods which cannot be reconciled to the most comparable GAAP financial measure are estimated in a manner which is consistent with the accounting policies applied in Shell plcs consolidated financial statements.

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT

The companies in which Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this announcement “Shell”, “Shell Group” and “Group” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities. “Subsidiaries”, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this announcement refer to entities over which Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations”, respectively. “Joint ventures” and “joint operations” are collectively referred to as “joint arrangements”.  Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all third-party interest.

This announcement contains forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on managements current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell to market risks and statements expressing managements expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as “aim”, “ambition”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “could”, “estimate”, “expect”, “goals”, “intend”, “may”, “milestones”, “objectives”, “outlook”, “plan”, “probably”, “project”, “risks”, “schedule”, “seek”, “should”, “target”, “will” and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this announcement, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shells products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, judicial, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; (m) risks associated with the impact of pandemics, such as the COVID-19 (coronavirus) outbreak; and (n) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this announcement are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell plcs Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2022 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this announcement and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this announcement, February 1, 2024. Neither Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this announcement.

All amounts shown throughout this announcement are unaudited. The numbers presented throughout this announcement may not sum precisely to the totals provided and percentages may not precisely reflect the absolute figures, due to rounding.

Shells Net Carbon Intensity

Also, in this announcement we may refer to Shells Net Carbon Intensity, which includes Shells carbon emissions from the production of our energy products, our suppliers carbon emissions in supplying energy for that production and our customers carbon emissions associated with their use of the energy products we sell. Shell only controls its own emissions. The use of the term Shells Net Carbon Intensity is for convenience only and not intended to suggest these emissions are those of Shell plc or its subsidiaries.

Shells Net-Zero Emissions Target

Shells operating plan, outlook and budgets are forecasted for a ten-year period and are updated every year. They reflect the current economic environment and what we can reasonably expect to see over the next ten years. Accordingly, they reflect our Scope 1, Scope 2 and Net Carbon Intensity (NCI) targets over the next ten years. However, Shells operating plans cannot reflect our 2050 net-zero emissions target and 2035 NCI target, as these targets are currently outside our planning period. In the future, as society moves towards net-zero emissions, we expect Shells operating plans to reflect this movement. However, if society is not net zero in 2050, as of today, there would be significant risk that Shell may not meet this target.

The content of websites referred to in this announcement does not form part of this announcement.

We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this announcement that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.

The financial information presented in this announcement does not constitute statutory accounts within the meaning of section 434(3) of the Companies Act 2006 (the Act). Statutory accounts for the year ended December 31, 2022 were published in Shells Annual Report and Accounts, a copy of which was delivered to the Registrar of Companies for England and Wales, and in Shells Form 20-F. The auditors report on those accounts was unqualified, did not include a reference to any matters to which the auditor drew attention by way of emphasis without qualifying the report and did not contain a statement under sections 498(2) or 498(3) of the Act. The statutory accounts for the year ended December 31, 2023 will be delivered to the Registrar of Companies for England and Wales in due course.

The information in this announcement does not constitute the unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements which are contained in Shells fourth quarter 2023 unaudited results available on www.shell.com/investors.

CONTACTS

• Media: International +44 207 934 5550; USA +1 832 337 4355

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